There is one simple way for Sunak to silence the Tory rebels

With the Conservatives braced for a dreadful showing in the local elections, there’s one surefire way to ward off any revolt within the party, says Andrew Grice. Enough of the silly guessing games, prime minister – announce the date this weekend

Announcing the date of the general election now is preferable to threatening a summer poll, which few backbenchers want (Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire)

Allies of Rishi Sunak are circling the wagons because they know his right-wing critics will attempt to oust him after tomorrow’s local elections in England. Government whips have told Conservative MPs to “take a long weekend”, imposing only a light, one-line whip for next Tuesday’s Commons business after Monday’s bank holiday, in the hope backbenchers keep away from Westminster – and any plotting.

But it’s still likely to be a bad long weekend for Sunak, as council and mayoral results trickle through until Sunday. The extended leave from the Commons won’t stop the plotting. To the whips’ frustration, rebel MPs can still plan their attempted coup from their constituencies by phone calls and WhatsApp groups.

It’s not clear whether right-wing rebels will garner the 52 Tory MPs needed to trigger a vote of confidence in Sunak as party leader. That will depend on the local results. Team Sunak has succeeded in setting the bar low: a win for either of the Tories’ most prominent mayors – Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley, or Andy Street in the West Midlands – would be seized on as grounds for hope, even though both have in effect run under their own independent brand rather than as Conservatives. The council results will tell us much more about the general election than the mayoral contests, but undecided Tory MPs looking for an excuse not to move against Sunak might take a Houchen or Street victory.